Predicting Alberta's Water Future

Predicting Alberta's Water Future (PAWF) is a three year project, funded by Alberta Innovates Energy and Environment Solutions.  The project will aim to assess the supply and demand of Alberta's water over the next 50 years under climate variability and global warming.


  1. Water supply assessment: To quantigy blue, green, and fossil water resources under various climate variability (mega-drought) and climate change (global-warming) scenarios, using enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model of Alberta.
  2. Assessment of water demand: To assess water demand of different sectors including agriculture, energy, industry, domestic and environment under various socio-economic scenarios.
  3. Water supply-demand analysis: To assess the water use intensity in different regions of Alberta based on the water resources availability-reliability and water demand of different sectors presently and in the future.
  4. Management scenarios: To assess alternative management options to realize opportunities during periods of water surplus and scarcity in the past and in the future under global climate change and climate variability.
  5. Economic analysis: To link the climate change effects on Alberta's water supply-demand to economic prospects.



  1. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool will be used for hydrological modeling.
  2. The Sequentially Uncertainty Fitting program will be used for calibration-validation and uncertainty assessment of the SWAT model predictions.
  3. Regional and global climate models will be coupled with the SWAT hydrological model to assess the availabilitly and reliabilitly of future water resources.
  4. The economic model will interact with hydrological and climate change models to estimate economic impact of climate change and develop an economic response model under extreme climate conditions (e.g. drought, flood).
  5. Integrated risk map will be developed to identif;y opportunities during water surplus and manage through water scarcity.
  6. Stakeholder consultations will be held to validate project outputs.



  • University of Calgary
  • University of Lethbridge
  • University of Regina
  • Ecoconsult, Montreal
  • Integrated Sustainability, Calgary
  • Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science


  • Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development
  • Canadian Water Network
  • Alberta Water Smart
  • Alberta Geological Survey
  • Alberta Energy Regulator
  • Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute


For more information:

Principal Investigator

Dr. Greg Goss


Lead Investigator

Dr. Monireh Faramarzi